Valor View – NG – Dec 18 – Weather Plays & Holiday Distractions

19 Dec 2025 • 2 min read

Market Overview

War and weed is in the air to keep you distracted from the E files
The distractions also include announcement of "Hunger Games"
Similarly, Natty market tried to be distracted with some weather coming back story, but traders are not having any of it
Even with the rally mostly FG was trying to stay bid, but HK and summer aren't really in the mood for a bid
Puts on strips like HK (Mar-May) tell you market cares more about the potential for weakness in low demand and high production, rather than FG
This is a great comment that expresses the rush for buy more weakness

Mar/Apr -0.05 put traded 2.7 cent 8,000x and that's the most brilliant trade of today. Mar/Apr flat put traded 0.054
Mar/Apr 0/-0.10 1x2 ps were also active for around 2.7c~
Mar-Dec 3.50/3.25 put spread traded 11.2 cent. Idea is to just leave the Jan-Feb in case weather returns, but the downside beyond that is a certainty according to this market
Apr/Oct CSOs got active like clockwork too
J/V -0.75/-1.00 put spread traded 0.035
J/V -1.00 put traded 0.022

Vol traders keep eyeing it, bu they all know there is pain on it before any gains
Your Ususal Suspects are selling Jan 27 7.00 calls for 36 something cents
Mar'27 calls still have some bid interest. It is the exact playbook from a year ago
Jan '27 calls 10.00 calls are down to 5~ something cents. Already lowest in 5 years

This is a very weird behavior by the market. Seems early and seems to have full faith in not much cold coming back and high EoS
JV 2.5/2.25 1x2 put spread traded 4 tics. Makes me cringe
But then, I see Cal '28 2.25/2.00 1x2 put spread trading -1.9c which made me shed a tear. Is this what trading is going to be all about?
Q2 5.00 calls were hit for 5.9c
Essentially, nothing bullish on the horizon
But, if some decent cold comes back, will there be another round of stop outs in the $1 range?