Valor View – NG – Jan 30 – 50 Cent Rally & Weekend Weather Risk

30 Jan 2026 • 2 min read

Market Overview

And... just like that a 50 cent move
Market is now running in scared, what ifs mode
What if we get more weather with no SALTs or low SALTs
No one wants to go short over the weekend. Not outright anyway
Especially when everyone is scratching their head about why LNG didn't shut down more with $30-$50 cash
March vol up 23%, but puts barely sold. How does that happen? Tells you no one wants to be outright short, but realized we have room to go down if weather fails
100 vol March puts will not pay though. We could be down $1 next week and vol will still come off 40%. Run that analysis before you buy any March puts outright. Ratio spreads will outperform and are very very cheap

This are great charts to see what happened in the market today
Futs and atm vol were up just one for one
But, interesting divergences in Mar and JV positioning
March calls got bid (but not overtly so), most of the March up move was just in ATM. Relatively, I will call the call move weak. Still went higher, but JV call skew actually went down
I guess the assumption is either weather or producers will call a top on JV?
On the put side, JV puts went bid too

As has been the norm lately, with interest on both sides, the range is very wide and vol keeps rallying
I wish I had bought some of those Jan'27 6.00 calls for 26 cents. Where is that guy now?
Today, Mar'27 20.00 calls got quoted around 1.5-2.00 cents
But, sure there is no bid for any vol beyond that JV'27. Cal'28. Dirt cheap
The guys who are long it keep quoting to see if there is any bid, but there isn't any still
That's the problem with back vol, you could be sitting on dirt cheap stuff, but if no one wants it or dumb producers offer more. Nothing you can do
I mean the dumb ones, not the ones who are my clients 😄
Silver had no buyers today or Gold. Let's hope weather stays in gas